Last month, we shared word of a Stanford University study that found entry-level employment in so-called « AI-impacted » occupations lagging well behind that in other fields. Now, a new working paper from economics researchers at Munich’s CESifo finds the opposite, arguing point blank that « there is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels. »
In « The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates, » researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu said they decided to focus on recent graduates « because changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring. » As AI gets good enough to at least perform the « relatively standardized tasks » in many entry-level office jobs, they argue, firms could reduce new hiring for simpler roles rather than laying off more experienced long-term employees.
There’s some reason to believe 2026’s graduating job seekers might be more at risk of AI displacement than those graduating just a year or two prior. The CESifo researchers point to a recent sharp increase in the number of firms « replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI » in a Census survey, as well as broad increases in AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use in the last 12 months.
